Like some Central Asian conqueror of Old, Obama eyes the Middle East. Where to put his efforts? and to ask - or tell - who, what, to get the momentum back.
True commitment to peace would of course demand cessation of terrorist capers by the Arabs and the roll back of Jewish settlements outside Israel. It's a land grab. Why the USA should condone it is pledging a callous, willful ignorance.
Syria needs to be brought in and Obama should be able to mouth apologies for recent armed incursions, driving Israel and Syria like sheep on the fold.(i.e., the Golan)
into a place wherein the ancestors descend and bid peace and mutual respect and a trust just as the border betwixt them has been so calm, so calm, with fruit passing through the checkpoints at Qunetra - why not just claim what already exists? Cannot Israel give up the Golan for an open Syria?
Turkey will surrender territory to the PKK as winter snow set in.
Iraq is sorting out a mountain of issues, ranging from re-admitting property holders to their original homes, to apportioning oil profits, to dicking with the US over a total American pullout. In order for Iraq to consolidate itself, the Americans must basically disappear.
Iran gets its financial wings cut off as the price for oil falls by half. No more carte blanche for Hizbullah. Ahmedinajad is fighting for his political life as the Persian know-nothings find themselves pinned down by nationalist ideology. The processing of Uranian continues, now with soem 6,500 centrefuges spinning.
Afghanistan bleeds again from its many wounds. If Obama lets the scheduled deployment of three US army briageds go through, then the Taliban better lay low. Pakistan is rolling up their village enclaves and terrorist teaching schools, finally, from Bajur to South Waziristan.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Close in Efforts
Don't let the Middle East (or Texas) colonize your head, or determine whether you're warm, or mobile, well fed. What you don't know will kill you.
You might enjoy the Shortfalls: The Novel on blogger.
You might enjoy the Shortfalls: The Novel on blogger.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Strange Bedfellows
A wise enemy is better than a foolish friend. How odd it is when we see the leaders of arch-enemies talking in perfect calm and mutual comprehension. Why do the American neocons reject any contact, any talk, with a potential enemy. Just as Bush/Rice went to Israel, stating that the USA could not talk with HAMAS in Gaza, Israeli PM Olmert links up with Abu Mazin in Ramallah, Ishmail Haniye in Gaza, and the young Asad in Syria. What are they saying to each other? What would happen if they made progress, defusing the region, throwing the extremists out. The extremists, who are very well placed, would launch assassinations, car bombs, suicide bombers and rockets, trying to trick the Israelis into targetting Fatah positions.
Lebanon is the hallowed crucible for a gentlemanly mutual respect, based on the use of force.
Human foes have common interests. In each case, the politics of symbolic appeal gave way to a practicable contact, even a modus vivendi. Peoples' interests are basically the same. So it is natural that the squads, the 'teams', get to meet, know and respect each other. Live and let live.
Inside Iraq you can just imagine the intrigue and machinations. Two hundred armed 'rebel' groups vy for influence, money and weapons. Some are committed 'full time' to avenging deaths of family. Iran has been training hundreds of Iraqi Shi'a, mostly in technical courses, and then sending them back to Iraq to target Sunni teams and the Americans.
How curious and peculiar it would be to read the transcripts of some of those secret conversations between arch-enemies. The two enemies need privacy as they are technically committing treason. Each takes up the other's arguments.That's why it is so important to know the enemy, not just to survive, but to add his power to your own.
The Chinese and the Japanese suddenly declared (June 14 2008) that they've resolved competition in the South China Seas, agreeing to share what oil there might be.
The world saw the Iraqi army punching through Basra, Amara, eastern Baghdad. The Americans too are at it - in Iraq US soldiers hobnob with the leaders of the resistence, and learn that there is a whole 'bouquet' of rebel groups.
Even Sudan had solved the war between north and south, and how the oil was to be divided. Good things happen when enemies talk: South Africa, India, Sudan, Ethiopia, Yemen, and Lebanon are examples where enemies talked to great affect and effect.
Use your own imagination to stage little meetings between Mid East leaders. Remember, these secret conversations must be at some point "treasonouis." That is, you must recognize, even take up and carry forward, the interests of your enemy. So weird things can be said. Like this fictional dialoque" ASAD to Olmert: "We want the Golan heights back." OLMERT to Asad: "Are you ready to join us in cutting off the hand of Iran?"
Feel free to post your own imaginative comments.
'A wise friend is better than a foolish enemy' , the official motto for the Middle East Speculum since 1988.
Lebanon is the hallowed crucible for a gentlemanly mutual respect, based on the use of force.
Human foes have common interests. In each case, the politics of symbolic appeal gave way to a practicable contact, even a modus vivendi. Peoples' interests are basically the same. So it is natural that the squads, the 'teams', get to meet, know and respect each other. Live and let live.
Inside Iraq you can just imagine the intrigue and machinations. Two hundred armed 'rebel' groups vy for influence, money and weapons. Some are committed 'full time' to avenging deaths of family. Iran has been training hundreds of Iraqi Shi'a, mostly in technical courses, and then sending them back to Iraq to target Sunni teams and the Americans.
How curious and peculiar it would be to read the transcripts of some of those secret conversations between arch-enemies. The two enemies need privacy as they are technically committing treason. Each takes up the other's arguments.That's why it is so important to know the enemy, not just to survive, but to add his power to your own.
The Chinese and the Japanese suddenly declared (June 14 2008) that they've resolved competition in the South China Seas, agreeing to share what oil there might be.
The world saw the Iraqi army punching through Basra, Amara, eastern Baghdad. The Americans too are at it - in Iraq US soldiers hobnob with the leaders of the resistence, and learn that there is a whole 'bouquet' of rebel groups.
Even Sudan had solved the war between north and south, and how the oil was to be divided. Good things happen when enemies talk: South Africa, India, Sudan, Ethiopia, Yemen, and Lebanon are examples where enemies talked to great affect and effect.
Use your own imagination to stage little meetings between Mid East leaders. Remember, these secret conversations must be at some point "treasonouis." That is, you must recognize, even take up and carry forward, the interests of your enemy. So weird things can be said. Like this fictional dialoque" ASAD to Olmert: "We want the Golan heights back." OLMERT to Asad: "Are you ready to join us in cutting off the hand of Iran?"
Feel free to post your own imaginative comments.
'A wise friend is better than a foolish enemy' , the official motto for the Middle East Speculum since 1988.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
American presidential candidates tripping or what?
Hilary Clinton, Baraq Obama and John McCane have all "evolved" strategies for the Middle East. Yet how any of them hope to succeed if they fall back on outdated (and unjust) policies? And the Good ol' USA sure needs some help - and fast.
There's much banter about alternative energies but come on now, it is impossible to make a shift like that. Maybe over 100 years - or by a series of oil shocks (shortfalls). So start by insuring petroleum supply.
As you know, the USA consumes a cool 20 m/brl./dy of petroleum. What you don't know (probably) is that both government and oilo firms turn cartwheels every day just to keep that 'normal' oil coming.
All the big oil producers are getting ready to implement preferential pricing. Poor countries will pay less for the stuff than big rich ones. It's only fair, I suppose.
Whether the OPEC will have the power to pull it off depends on whether Russia will join them.
So here, we're talking about the real economic axle of the modern world - petroleum - and the main candidates just don't get it. Obviously we must not alienate the producers too much.
The producing countries have not exactly benefitted from the huge amounts of US dollars. The only country producing oil which may have not weakened itself, is Libya. But that is highly qualified because Qaddafi did away with any rich private businessman.
Of course it was Qaddafi and our friend and ally Shah Reza Pahlavi who managed on 3 occassions to jack the price up five times (1971, 1973). Becuase New England by law burns only low sulphur crude, Qaddafi was able to demand a premium and Nixon had could either buy at the new price, or watch the Northeastern USA go dark and cold.
Why oil producing countries tend to come apart is a subject in itself. Best to study what happened to Spain when all that New World gold and silver flowed in.
By the rich, developed countries are in even a greater bind because their constituents believe they are entitled to cheap oil and have based their whole lives on it. None of us can imagine what life would be like without the sweet low sulphur fossil juice.
So somehow we must get back in the good graces with the oil producing nations. Very briefly, the USA must pursue a policy that improves the lives of stateless folk - the Kurds, the Palestinians, and Iraqi exiles.
We belief that the interests of all nations overlap and converge. What you want for your children - or for yourself - is virtualy identical to what an African or a Russian or an Arab would say. For example, American politicians are still, at this late date, believing that the USA must support Israel 'to the hilt' when in fact the security of the Israeli people depends on getting out of military responses and military solutions.
Whether Democrat or Republican, US administrations are terrified of the opprobrium of the Israel lobby as if most American Jews support it. They don't. AIPAC is much too brutal, much too right wing and imperialistic, if not racist, to have much support from American Jews.
Collective punishment is not exactly a good come on.
The new Gaza Authority - the HAMAS terror group - is not exactly popular in Palestine but its acceptability, its political capital, rises whenever Israel munitions kills a family. Like Israel, I put great hope and trust in the West Bank Fatah government of Abu Mazin, Mr Abbas.
Any one criticizing this publication of not supporting the genuine Muslim HAMAS, better know his Qur'an, because there is passage after passage which goes against what the Mid East terror bozos believe. They are not real Muslims.
Real Muslims, real Jews, real Christians, real Buddhists, would never have differences in their basic interests.
There's much banter about alternative energies but come on now, it is impossible to make a shift like that. Maybe over 100 years - or by a series of oil shocks (shortfalls). So start by insuring petroleum supply.
As you know, the USA consumes a cool 20 m/brl./dy of petroleum. What you don't know (probably) is that both government and oilo firms turn cartwheels every day just to keep that 'normal' oil coming.
All the big oil producers are getting ready to implement preferential pricing. Poor countries will pay less for the stuff than big rich ones. It's only fair, I suppose.
Whether the OPEC will have the power to pull it off depends on whether Russia will join them.
So here, we're talking about the real economic axle of the modern world - petroleum - and the main candidates just don't get it. Obviously we must not alienate the producers too much.
The producing countries have not exactly benefitted from the huge amounts of US dollars. The only country producing oil which may have not weakened itself, is Libya. But that is highly qualified because Qaddafi did away with any rich private businessman.
Of course it was Qaddafi and our friend and ally Shah Reza Pahlavi who managed on 3 occassions to jack the price up five times (1971, 1973). Becuase New England by law burns only low sulphur crude, Qaddafi was able to demand a premium and Nixon had could either buy at the new price, or watch the Northeastern USA go dark and cold.
Why oil producing countries tend to come apart is a subject in itself. Best to study what happened to Spain when all that New World gold and silver flowed in.
By the rich, developed countries are in even a greater bind because their constituents believe they are entitled to cheap oil and have based their whole lives on it. None of us can imagine what life would be like without the sweet low sulphur fossil juice.
So somehow we must get back in the good graces with the oil producing nations. Very briefly, the USA must pursue a policy that improves the lives of stateless folk - the Kurds, the Palestinians, and Iraqi exiles.
We belief that the interests of all nations overlap and converge. What you want for your children - or for yourself - is virtualy identical to what an African or a Russian or an Arab would say. For example, American politicians are still, at this late date, believing that the USA must support Israel 'to the hilt' when in fact the security of the Israeli people depends on getting out of military responses and military solutions.
Whether Democrat or Republican, US administrations are terrified of the opprobrium of the Israel lobby as if most American Jews support it. They don't. AIPAC is much too brutal, much too right wing and imperialistic, if not racist, to have much support from American Jews.
Collective punishment is not exactly a good come on.
The new Gaza Authority - the HAMAS terror group - is not exactly popular in Palestine but its acceptability, its political capital, rises whenever Israel munitions kills a family. Like Israel, I put great hope and trust in the West Bank Fatah government of Abu Mazin, Mr Abbas.
Any one criticizing this publication of not supporting the genuine Muslim HAMAS, better know his Qur'an, because there is passage after passage which goes against what the Mid East terror bozos believe. They are not real Muslims.
Real Muslims, real Jews, real Christians, real Buddhists, would never have differences in their basic interests.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Urban axis in Middle East Political Dynamics
We learned long ago that there existed a whole plane of reality undetected by the press and other governments, scientists, as well as sojournors in areas where they remain blissfully ignorant of what's happening around them. The fastest way to reveal this unknown plane is to draw lines connecting all regional cities with all regional cities. For example, we can talk of the Damascus/Cairo axis, or the Kabul/Baghdad one. Smaller cities connected by road can also exhibit hidden but extremely potent energies for trade and development. For example, we can speak of the Jerusalem/Tel Aviv axis, or the one that exists between Ma'an, Jordon, to Tabuk, Saudi Arabia. Not all axis are relevant or potent, but all do exist. There are always people from Beirut living in, say, Aleppo (Haleb), and always people from Haleb living in Beirut. Furthermore, the schoolbooks explicitly bring out these hidden axis by study of geography, economics, or history. Remember, these are factors and events falling outside the purlieu of central governments The actors are often businessmen, teachers or local councils or deputy ministers. All do their thing below the radar of even the best media or intelligence outfit.
What urban axis interest you? Please post with explanation or just a question.
What urban axis interest you? Please post with explanation or just a question.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
SUMMARY OF YEAR'S EVENTS,con't.
Feel free to post on these topics: Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Bahrein, Bangladesh, Bosnia, Burma. Chad, Eritrea, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jibouti, Jordan, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunesia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Yemen - add China, the Mongols (incl. Russia), the Muslim Sunni and Shi'a, and Christiandom, - mix all these and, stir and that is why you can see whirl winds raising dust from Tibet to the bleak Akchar desert waste of Mauretania.
A note on format: simply type the nation on which you are commenting, in caps. i.e., AFGHANISTAN.
A note on format: simply type the nation on which you are commenting, in caps. i.e., AFGHANISTAN.
Regional Summary Jan.4, 2008
A SUMMARY OF HOPE - The Middle East and Central Asia
This briefest of summaries is a round up of events in 2007 and how they augur for the future.
IRAQ stills gaps open like a bad wound. The government of Nur al Maliki has shown signs of widening its constitutencies to include Sunni Arabs, Kurds, Chaldeans, Turcomen and secular Shi'a. But the Iraqi National Party under Iyad Alawi is still outside - and its cold.
This month we will examine how and when the US will withdraw from Iraq. Needless to say there are many in the US who want US troops to remain in Iraq indefinitely. These are the arrogant Republican know-nothings who started the war.
Before we go on, it is necessary to remind everyone that the situation(s) in the Region, and in Iraq in particular, is highly fluid. It changes every week. The Iraq invaded in 2003 is not the Iraq of 2008. If you are often perplexed, maybe it means you are flexible enough to go with the big weekly changes taking place.
IRAN is economically falling apart because it cannot procure spare parts or do any kind of business with non-Iranian companies. Discontent has been steadily rising and now new shortfalls occur - lack of oil, gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, feedstocks, fertilizer, and imported food.
AFGHANISTAN -
This briefest of summaries is a round up of events in 2007 and how they augur for the future.
IRAQ stills gaps open like a bad wound. The government of Nur al Maliki has shown signs of widening its constitutencies to include Sunni Arabs, Kurds, Chaldeans, Turcomen and secular Shi'a. But the Iraqi National Party under Iyad Alawi is still outside - and its cold.
This month we will examine how and when the US will withdraw from Iraq. Needless to say there are many in the US who want US troops to remain in Iraq indefinitely. These are the arrogant Republican know-nothings who started the war.
Before we go on, it is necessary to remind everyone that the situation(s) in the Region, and in Iraq in particular, is highly fluid. It changes every week. The Iraq invaded in 2003 is not the Iraq of 2008. If you are often perplexed, maybe it means you are flexible enough to go with the big weekly changes taking place.
IRAN is economically falling apart because it cannot procure spare parts or do any kind of business with non-Iranian companies. Discontent has been steadily rising and now new shortfalls occur - lack of oil, gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, feedstocks, fertilizer, and imported food.
AFGHANISTAN -
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